>> OUR BREAKING NEWS COVERAGE
CONTINUES ON MSNBC, WE HAVE
NEW VIDEO SHOWING THE
AIRSTRIKES THAT ISRAEL CARRIED
OUT INSIDE OF IRAN TONIGHT.
NEAR THE CITY OF ISFAHAN.
THESE ARE BELIEVED TO HAVE BEEN
NEAR OR ADJACENT TO A MILITARY
BASE, AN AIRBASE IN ISFAHAN,
THERE IS A NUCLEAR BASE IN
ISFAHAN.
IT DOES NOT APPEAR THE NUCLEAR
FACILITY HAS BEEN TARGETED, BUT
AGAIN, INFORMATION IS VERY RAW
AND NEW, SO WE DON’T KNOW.
IT IS JUST DAYTIME IN IRAN, AND
WE ARE HOPING TO GET SOME
REPORTS AS SOON AS THERE IS
DAYLIGHT OUT THERE, BUT THE
NATIONAL SECURITY REPORT, DAN
JOINS ME NOW.
AND THE PROBLEM, DAN, WE HAVE
CONFLICTING INFORMATION.
WE SORT OF BELIEVE THAT THE
ISRAELIS ARE SORT OF SAYING
THERE WAS AN ATTACK.
THE IRANIANS ARE SORT OF SAYING
THERE WAS AN ATTACK AND EVERY
BODY SEEMS TO BE DOWNPLAYING
THE WHOLE OPERATION, WHAT YOU
BELIEVE YOU KNOW?
>> YOU KNOW, I THINK THAT IS
THE KEY HERE, ALI, THE LANGUAGE
BEING USED ON ALL SIZES FAIRLY
RESTRAINED.
AND VERY LIMITED.
AND IT IS EARLY, IT IS FLUID,
BUT THAT MIGHT BE A CAUSE FOR
SOME CAUTIOUS OPTIMISM THAT
THIS SITUATION IS NOT GOING TO
SPIRAL AND ESCALATE
DRAMATICALLY, BUT IT IS STILL--
WE ARE STILL IN THE EARLY
MOMENTS HERE, BUT THE FACT
THAT, NOW SEVERAL HOURS HAVE
PASSED, IF YOU DON’T HEAR THE
IRANIAN GOVERNMENT SAYING THAT
THERE ARE CASUALTIES, THAT
THERE IS TERRIBLY A LARGE-SCALE
ATTACK THAT HAS BEEN CONDUCTED,
AND YOU DON’T HEAR ISRAEL
BOASTING ABOUT SOME KIND OF
LARGE-SCALE ATTACK, EITHER THEY
ARE DESCRIBING IT AS A LIMITED
OPERATION, AND WE ARE JUST SEE
THIS VIDEO NOW FOR THE FIRST
TIME, IT DOESN’T TELL US A LOT,
RIGHT?
SO, IT MAY BE QUITE LIMITED,
QUITE SMALL-SCALE, IN WHICH
CASE, THAT MIGHT LEAVE
BREATHING ROOM FOR IRAN TO SORT
OF SAVE FACE AND NOT ESCALATE
AND TAKE SOME MORE DRASTIC
ACTION.
BUT WE DON’T KNOW, AND WE WILL
HAVE TO WAIT TO HEAR MORE.
>> I ASK YOU THIS,
PARTICULARLY, DAN, BECAUSE YOU
OPERATE IN CIRCLES WHERE YOU
ARE CONSTANTLY TALKING TO
PEOPLE WHO ARE ANALYST, AND WHO
REALLY UNDERSTAND THE PLACE
WELL.
THESE PLACES WELL.
IT IS OUT OF CHARACTER FOR IRAN
TO, CERTAINLY, THE POST 2018
IRAN, AFTER WE GOT OUT OF THE
NUCLEAR DEAL, AFTER IRAN HAD
ANY INTEREST IN APPEASING UNITED
DATES, IT IS UNCHARACTERISTIC
FOR THEM TO NOT HAVE VERY
STRONG RESPONSES TO ALL OF THIS
STUFF, BUT AFTER LAST SATURDAY
POLSKY ATTACKS, THEY SIGNALED
THAT WAS OUR ATTACK IN
RETALIATION FOR THE ATTACK ON
THE DIPLOMATIC COMPOUND IN
DAMASCUS, AND AS FAR AS WE ARE
CONCERNED, THIS IS DONE, UNLESS
ISRAEL DOES SOMETHING ELSE THAT
IS AWFULLY PROVOCATIVE, AND
THEN WE SPENT A WEEK HEARING
ISRAEL-- THE ISRAELIS WERE
HAVING ARGUMENTS ABOUT IT, BUT
THEY WERE TRYING TO COME UP
WITH A PLAN THAT WOULD RESULT
IN NO CIVILIAN CASUALTIES.
SO, TALK TO ME ABOUT THIS, IT
IS A VERY UNUSUAL WAY OF WAGING
WAR BETWEEN TWO LONG-STANDING
BELLIGERENTS.
>> IT IS.
IT IS EXTRAORDINARY, AND PART
OF IT IS IRAN HAS ALWAYS CHOSEN
TO CONFRONT ISRAEL INDIRECTLY.
SO, THAT IS WHAT MADE LAST
SATURDAY SO UNUSUAL.
THEY ACTUALLY DIRECTLY LAUNCHED
AN ATTACK, A MILITARY OPERATION
AGAINST ISRAEL, OVERTLY.
RIGHT?
THEY HAVE ALWAYS PREFERRED TO
TAKE ON ISRAEL INDIRECTLY,
THROUGH THEIR PROXY GROUPS.
THROUGH THEIR PARTNERS AND
ALLIES THAT THEY ARM AND TRAIN,
WHETHER IT IS HEZBOLLAH AND
LEBANON, HAMAS IN GAZA, THE
LUCY FORCES IN YEMEN, AND SO
FORTH.
AND THIS WAS A CASE, WHERE THEY
FELT THEY HAD TO ACT DIRECTLY
AGAINST ISRAEL, AND I THINK
IRAN, AS BELLIGERENT AS THEY
CONSENT SOMETIMES IN THEIR
RHETORIC ENDED THEIR ACTIONS,
THEY ARE AWARE THAT A DIRECT,
FULL-BLOWN WAR, WITH ISRAEL
WOULD BE VERY DIFFICULT, AND
THEY WOULD POSSIBLY BE
OVERMATCHED.
ISRAEL’S MILITARY IS MUCH MORE
CAPABLE, AND WE SAW THAT, TO
SOME DEGREE LAST WEEK, RIGHT?
WHEN THEY LAUNCHED MORE THAN
300 DRONES AND MISSILES AT
ISRAEL, AND ALMOST NONE OF THEM
STRUCK.
MOST OF THEM WERE SHOT DOWN,
WITH SOME HELP FROM THE U.S.,
THE BRITS AND OTHERS, BUT I
THINK IRAN IS DEFINITELY TRYING
TO CALIBRATE THEIR RESPONSE, AT
LEAST THEY THINK THEY ARE.
AND THEN, OF COURSE, ISRAEL
BELIEVES THAT THEY ARE
CALIBRATING THEIR RESPONSE, BUT
COURSE, IN THESE KINDS OF VERY
PERILOUS SITUATIONS, AS YOU
KNOW, THROUGHOUT HISTORY,
SOMETIMES THE MESSAGE YOU TRY
TO SEND ISN’T RECEIVED THE WAY
YOU INTENDED IT.
>> THE WAY YOU MEANT IT TO.
THAT IS EXACTLY RIGHT.
>> THAT IS WHAT WE ARE ALL
WAITING FOR.
>> EVERYBODY IS TRYING, AT
LEAST THEY THINK THEY ARE BEING
MEASURED, BUT IT IS KIND OF
AMAZING TO THE REST OF US, WHEN
WE HEAR ABOUT ROCKETS AND
MISSILES AND THINGS LIKE THAT.
IT DOESN’T SEEM LIKE MEASURED
RESPONSES, BUT THIS MAY BE THE