REALLY, REALLY BE IN A CALAMITY.
>> MICHAEL, PETER, GENERAL
McCAFFREY, THANK YOU SO MUCH
FOR JOINING US ON THIS VERY
IMPORTANT NIGHT.
>>> I WOULD LIKE TO BRING IN
FORMER CIA DIRECTOR, JOHN
BRENNAN.
THANK YOU FOR JOINING US.
YOU KNOW OUR INTELLIGENCE
AGENCIES, AS WELL AS ANYONE OUT
THERE.
WHAT IS THEIR TOP PRIORITY AT
THIS MOMENT?
>> WELL, STEPHANIE, FINDING OUT
WHAT THE FACTS ARE WE ARE JUST
A FEW HOURS FROM THE STRIKES
AND THERE IS A LOT THAT WE
DON’T KNOW AT THIS POINT.
AND I TEND TO MUCH AGREE WITH
PETER BAKER AND MITCH ENGEL,
THAT A LOT WILL DEPEND ON HOW
MUCH DAMAGE WAS DONE AND,
INSIDE OF IRAN BY THESE ISRAELI
STRIKES.
HEZBOLLAH IS A VERY SORT OF
TARGET RICH ENVIRONMENT THERE
IS A LARGE AIR BASE, THERE’S A
MISSILE PRODUCTION FACILITY, THE
IRANIAN NUCLEAR CHEMICAL
FACILITY IS THERE, ALSO AN
UNDERGROUND BASE.
SO IT IS CLEAR THAT ISRAEL
DELIBERATED OVER WHERE THEY
WOULD STRIKE OVER THE PAST
SEVERAL DAYS.
PROBABLY GETTING UPDATED
INTELLIGENT INCLUDING SATELLITE
IMAGERY.
THE STRIKES TOOK PLACE IN THE
MIDDLE OF THE NIGHT SO THE
QUESTION IS, HOW MANY
CASUALTIES WERE THERE?
WHAT TYPE OF DAMAGE WAS THERE?
AND SO I THINK WITH THE
INTELLIGENCE AGENCY, THE CIA IS
DOING IS TRYING TO DETERMINE
EXACTLY WHAT THAT DAMAGES AND
TRYING TO THEN SEE HOW THE
IRANIANS ARE GOING TO REACT.
WE MAY KNOW WHETHER OR NOT WE
ARE GOING TO GET INTO THIS VERY
DANGEROUS ESCALATORY SPIRAL BY
SOME OF THE INITIAL STATEMENTS
THAT WILL BE COMING OUT OF
TEHRAN, WHETHER OR NOT THEY’RE A
GOING TO SAY THIS WAS AN
EFFECTIVE, WHETHER THE IRANIAN
DEFENSE FORCES WERE ABLE TO
REPEL SOME OF THE STRIKES EVEN
IF THEY DIDN’T.
OR WHETHER OR NOT THE IRANIANS
ARE GOING TO CLAIM THAT THERE
WERE LARGE NUMBERS OF CIVILIAN
CASUALTIES WILL CERTAINLY STOKE THE BROADSIDES THAT COULD IN
FACT PROCEED A FOLLOW-ON STRIKE.
AGAIN, STILL EARLY, THE
INTELLIGENCE AGENCIES ARE
TRYING TO DETERMINE EXACTLY
WHAT IS HAPPENING ON THE
GROUND.
THE SUN JUST CAME UP ABOUT AN
HOUR AND A HALF OR SO AGO.
SO I THINK WE WILL BE GETTING
SOME DAMAGE ASSESSMENTS THAT
ARE GOING TO BE GOING TO THE
WHITE HOUSE.
SO THEY CAN BETTER UNDERSTAND
THE SITUATION THERE.
>> THEY DELIBERATED OVER THE
LAST FEW DAYS AND THEN THEY
MADE A DEFINITIVE DECISION,
JUST TODAY, THE, CIA DIRECTOR,
WILLIAM BURNS, CALLED IRAN’S
ATTACK ON ISRAEL OVER THE
WEEKEND A SPECTACULAR FAILURE .
GIVEN THAT, DO YOU BELIEVE
ISRAEL MADE A MISTAKE BY
RESPONDING IN THIS FASHION?
>> ISRAEL MAKES ITS
CALCULATIONS BASED ON WHAT HE AT
BELIEVES IT HAS TO DO AND THE
UNPRECEDENTED NATURE OF THIS
IRANIAN ASSAULT ON ISRAEL, OVER
300 MISSILES AND DRONES THAT
CAME AFTER ISRAELIS, AS THOUGH
THEY HAD RESPONDED SOMEHOW IN
KIND.
UNFORTUNATELY IN THE MIDDLE
EAST, AND I FOR AN ARGUMENT
RETALIATORY MIND-SET IS VERY
STRONG. SO PRESIDENT BIDEN WAS HOPING AT
THAT THE ISRAELIS WOULD GO
INTO, AS YOU SAY, TAKE THE WIN
AND POCKET IT AND NOT DO
SOMETHING THAT COULD, IN FACT,
LEAD TO A DANGEROUS ESCALATION
POINT I DO NOT BELIEVE, AT THIS
POINT, THAT I RAN ONCE A MAJOR
WAR BECAUSE IT WILL LOSE THAT
AND WILL LOSE IT IN A BIG WAY.
AT THE SAME TIME, THE IRANIAN
LEADERSHIP ALSO HAS TO FACE IT
DOMESTIC POLITICAL PRESSURE AND
IF IT CAN’T BE SEEN AS JUST
LAYING DOWN TO ISRAEL, ISRAEL’S
OFFENSIVE CAPABILITIES.
BUT IT IS CLEAR THAT ISRAEL WAS
SENDING A MESSAGE TO IRAN, YOU
WERE NOT ABLE TO GET THROUGH
OUR AIR DEFENSES BUT CLEARLY
SOMETHING GOT THROUGH BECAUSE
OF THESE EXPLOSIONS.
>> WERE YOU SURPRISED BY THIS
MOVE?
>> WELL, THERE RECENT COMMENTS
THAT ARE COMING OUT OF ISRAEL
THAT SAID THAT THEY ARE GOING
TO RESPOND IN A VERY SORT OF
MAJOR WAY LED ME TO BELIEVE THAT
THEY WERE NOT JUST GOING TO BE
SATISFIED WITH STRIKES AGAIN
IRANIAN REVOLUTIONARY GUARD
CORPS OR EVEN DRONE BASES, THAT
THEY FELT THAT THEY HAD TO GO
AFTER SOMEWHERE IN IRAN.
I WAS HOPING IT WOULD BE SOME
KIND OF INFRASTRUCTURE AND THAT
THERE WOULD BE A MINIMAL LOSS
OF LIFE BECAUSE I THINK IF
THERE IS A LOT OF BLOOD THAT
WAS SHED IN THE STRIKES, THE
IRANIANS ARE GOING TO FEEL
COMPELLED TO BE ABLE TO RESPOND
SOMEHOW TO ISRAEL COULD BE WITH
TERRORIST ATTACKS, COULD BE
WITH MORE MISSILE ASSAULT COULD
BE, AS WAS MENTIONED, UNLEASHING
HEZBOLLAH IN A MAJOR WAY.
I DON’T THINK IRAN WANTS TO
TAKE ON ISRAEL AND THE UNITED
STATES AT THIS TIME AND I DON’T
THINK THEY HAVE THE CAPABILITY
POINT THEY CERTAINLY COULD DO
SOME DAMAGE WITH THEIR STANDOFF
CAPABILITIES THAT THEY COULD
LAUNCH, INCLUDING THE GULF
STATES BUT THEY WILL LOSE A WAR
IN A MAJOR WAY IF THEY DECIDE TO
GO AFTER ISRAEL WITH ALL OF
THEIR MILITARY MIGHT.
CLEAN IT ASIDE CONSIDERED
THEMSELVES THE AGGRESSOR.
THEY BOTH HAVE CONTINUED TO SAY
THEY ARE JUST DEFENDING
THEMSELVES.
BUT IF THIS FOR TAT CONTINUES ,
WHAT WILL ACTUALLY STOP IT?
>> THAT IS A GOOD QUESTION,
STEPHANIE.
THIS IS THE HISTORY OF THE
MIDDLE EAST.
OVER THE COURSE OF THE LAST 75
YEARS OR SO, WE HAVE SEEN BACK
AND FORTH AND THEY CONTINUE TO
POINT FINGERS AT EACH OTHER.
UNFORTUNATELY, ON BOTH SIDES,
THAT ARE UNWILLING TO
COMPROMISE ON SOME OF THESE
CORE AND KEY ISSUES.
AND SO OBVIOUSLY WHAT HAPPENED
WITH THE HAMAS ATROCITIES THAT
WERE PERPETRATED AGAINST THE
ISRAELIS ON OCTOBER 7th
TRIGGERED THEN THE ISRAELI
MILITARY OPERATIONS IN GAZA,
WHICH THEN TRIGGERED A LOT OF
THESE ATTACKS THAT WERE TAKING
PLACE FROM THE HOUTHIS, THE
HEZBOLLAH, AND OTHERS.
SO THIS IS JUST THIS CYCLE THAT
CONTINUES TO GO ON.
SO IT IS HARD TO SAY HOW THIS
IS GOING TO END.
WE HAVE MADE SOME PROGRESS ON
THE LAST SEVERAL DECADES.
BUT IN MANY RESPECTS, THE
PALESTINIAN ISSUE FREQUENTLY IS
AT THE CORE OF SOME OF THESE
EVENTS, THAT TEND TO SPIRAL OUT
OF CONTROL AND JUST HOPING THAT
THIS IS NOT GOING TO BE ONE
THAT WILL LEAD TO A LARGE
REGIONAL CONFLAGRATION, THAT IS
RINGING AND NOT JUST ISRAEL BUT
IRAN BUT ALSO OTHER STATES AND
THE UNITED STATES DIRECT
MILITARY CONFLICT.
>> IN THE DAYS AHEAD, WE ARE
GOING TO SEE A LOT OF OFFICIAL
STATEMENTS AND NEWS CONFERENCES
FROM A MULTITUDE OF WORLD
LEADERS.
WHAT ARE YOU GOING TO BE
WATCHING FOR WHEN THEY SPEAK?
>> I’M GOING TO BE WATCHING FOR
HOW ARE THEY GOING TO TRY TO
TAMP DOWN THESE TENSIONS?
THERE ARE SOME PLAYERS THAT DO
HAVE AN IMPORTANT ROLE.
TURKEY COULD PLAY AN IMPORTANT E
ROLE HERE IN TERMS OF
COUNSELING RESTRAINT ON THE
PART OF BOTH ISRAEL AND IRAN.
RUSSIA ALSO COULD PLAY A ROLE
WITH IRAN GIVEN THE BURGEONING
MILITARY RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN TA
MOSCOW AND TORONTO.
CHINA ALSO PICK A THING MORE
VOICES ON THE WORLD STAGE
REALLY NEED TO BE COUNSELING,
AS MUCH RESTRAINT AS POSSIBLE.
BUT UNFORTUNATELY, AS
FREQUENTLY AS THE EXTREMIST
INSULT OF THESE COUNTRIES COME
INSIDE OF THE OCCUPIED
TERRITORIES, THESE ARE THE ONES
THAT WILL TEND TO INFLAME
TENSIONS AND TRY TO MAKE THE
CONFLICT EVEN WORSE.
BUT THIS IS WHERE LEADERSHIP IS
SO INCREDIBLY IMPORTANT AND I
KNOW THE BIDEN ADMINISTRATION,
ALL THE FOLKS AT THE WHITE
HOUSE, THE ONES THAT ARE
PROBABLY STILL CONVENING THEIR,
THE WHITE HOUSE SITUATION ROOM
ON SECURE VIDEOCONFERENCES,
THEY’RE LOOKING FOR WAYS TO BE
ABLE TO ENSURE THAT THIS IS NOT
GOING TO TRIGGER WHAT COULD BE,
IN FACT, A VERY VERY BLOODY,
COSTLY, AND VERY DANGEROUS