AND THAT’S WHAT DRIVES US EVERY
MORNING.
BECAUSE EVERY DAY DESERVES THE
BEST PART.
>> THIS IS WHERE IT ALL BEGINS.
>>> WE ARE BACK WITH NEW DATA
FROM THE FBI THAT SHOWS
DRAMATICALLY DECLINING CRIME
RATES ACROSS THE U.S. STILL, A
MAJORITY OF AMERICANS BELIEVE
CRIME IS GETTING WORSE EVEN HE
THOUGH THE NEW INFORMATION
PAINTS A DIFFERENT PICTURE.
>> THE NUMBERS INDICATE A
SIGNIFICANT DROP IN CRIME LAST
YEAR CONTINUING THE TREND THAT
STARTED AFTER THE END OF COVID
PANDEMIC LOCK DOWN.
DEEPER DIVE OF THE MOUNDERS
JEFF ASHER THANKS FOR JOINING
US THIS MORNING.
SO, FROM LOOKING AT THE STATS
PROVIDED BY THE FBI WHAT ARE
THE MAJOR TACK AWAYS AND THE
KEY FACTORS IN THE FACT IT
SEEMS CRIME RATES ARE IMPROVING
QUITE A BIT.
>> I THINK THE FIRST THING WE
HAVE TO DO IS CAVEAT THEY ARE
PRELIMINARY AND IT’S COMING
FROM 13,000 AGENCIES OUT OF THE
18,000 TOTAL THAT WILL REPORT
BY THE END OF THE YEAR.
AND IN OCTOBER THE FBI WILL PUT
OUT FINAL NUMBERS.
WHAT WE SEE IS A DOCTOR MAT I
13% DRAMATIC DECLINE ONE
DECLINE 9% IN 1996.
IT SUGGEST THAT LAST YEAR WE
HAD THE LARGEST ONE-YEAR
DECLINE MURDER RECORDED.
AND THE VIOLENT CRIME 6%
VIOLENT CRIME RATE DECLINE
WOULD BE ON TOP OF A VIOLENT
CRIME RATE DECLINE LAST YEAR
THE FBI REPORTED.
AND IT COULD POTENTIALLY LEAD
TO THE LOWEST VIOLENT CRIME
RATE REPORTED NATIONALLY, AND
SOMETHINGLY DOWN FROM WHERE
VIOLENT CRIME WAS IN 2020 DOWN
EVEN FURTHER FROM THE ’90s.
ALSO SAW THE DECLINE IN
PROPERTY CRIME WHICH IS MARRED
BY AN INCREASE IN AUTO THEFTS
DRIVEN BY SOCIAL MEDIA TRENDS
THAT WERE LEADING TO CERTAIN
MODELS OF CARS BEING EASIER TO
STEAL THAN OTHERS.
>> SO LET’S TALK ABOUT THE
PUBLIC PERCEPTION.
GALLUP POLL AT THE ND OF LAST
YEAR RELEASED FOUND 8% OF
ADULTS BELIEVE CRIME WAS
GETTING WORSE.
WHY THE DISCONNECT HERE?
HOW DO YOU FLIP THAT?
>> I THINK THERE’S A COUPLE OF
REASONS.
WHY IS THIS DATA VACUUM.
AGAIN, IT WON’T BE UNTIL
OCTOBER WE HAVE 2023’S FINAL
NUMBERS.
IF YOU CAN IMAGINE WAITING
UNTIL THE SUMMER TO FIGURE OUT
WHO WON LAST YEAR’S WORLD
SERIES, THAT’S ESSENTIALLY THE
WORLD OF CRIME DATA.
SO WE HAVE TO SCRAPE BY OTHER
SOURCES AND THIS QUARTERLY DATA
PRELIMINARY DATA FROM THE FBI
IS HELPFUL, BUT IT’S NOT FINAL.
THE OTHER SORT OF EXPLANATION
THAT I POINT TO IS THAT THERE’S
A SAYING THE MEDIA DOESN’T
COVER THE PLANES THAT LAND, AND
WE DON’T USUALLY SEE CRIME
STORIES THERE WERE NO MURDERS
YESTERDAY.
NO ONE GOT ROBBED THERE’S NO
SHOPLIFTINGS.
IT’S ONLY WHEN EVENTS OCCUR
THAT WE HEAR ABOUT THEM AND
LEADS PEOPLE TO DEVELOP THE
ANTIDOTES FROM INCOMPLETE
INFORMATION OR BIAS AND WE HAVE
SEEN HUGE AMOUNTS OF
PARTISANSHIP IN THIS ISSUE.
ONLY AND I SAY ONLY, 52% OF
DEMOCRATS SAID THAT CRIME ROSE
LAST YEAR IN THE GALLUP POLL
YOU ARE REFERENCING WHICH IS
THE LARGEST SHARE OF DEMOCRATS.
BUT IT WAS NEARLY 90% OF
REPUBLICANS.
AND SO WE HAVE SEEN THE
WIDENING PARTISAN GAP ON WHAT
DIFFERENT PEOPLE BELIEVE ABOUT
CRIME TRENDS BASED ON THEIR
POLITICAL PERSUASION.
AND THAT’S A VERY NEW
PHENOMENON NATIONALLY.
>> SO WE SAW THIS SPIKE IN
CRIME DURING COVID, RIGHT.
LET’S TALK NOW ABOUT WHAT SOME
OF THE SIGNIFICANT CHALLENGES
ARE THAT REMAIN FOR LAW
ENFORCEMENT.
A MINUTE AGO WE WERE PLAYING
VIDEO OF SOMETHING THAT SEEMS
TO BE A NEWER TREND OR
SOMETHING WE ARE HEARING A LOT
MORE ABOUT TO YOUR POINT
SOMETHING WE ARE COVERING MORE.
THE SMASH AND GRAB OR CRASH AND
GRABS DEPENDING ON THE
SITUATION.
WHAT DIFFERENT TYPES OF CRIMES
ARE LAW ENFORCEMENT NOW HAVING
TO DEAL WITH?
>> AUTO THEFT IS THE ONE THAT
IS BECOME A MUCH MORE SERIOUS
ISSUE OVER THE LAST 12 TO 18
MONTHS.
AND THE SUMMER OF 2022, VIDEO
WAS ON TIKTOK THAT SHOWED HOW
TO STEAL MODELS OF KIAs AND
HYUNDAIS AND IN CITIES
OVERNIGHT DOUBLING OR TRIPLING
OF AUTO THEFTS.
AND CRIME GOES UP 5% MAYBE GOES
DOWN 10%.
THAT’S A LARGE DECLINE OR LARGE
INCREASE.
YOU WERE SEEING HUNDRED, 150%
INCREASE OVERNIGHT.
THE REAL ISSUE THE AGENCIES ARE
DEALING WITH ARE STRUCTURAL.
AGENCIES WITH LOT OF OFFICERS
BETWEEN 2019 A 2022 ESPECIALLY
BIG AGENCIES AND THEY ARE
STRUGGLING TO HIRE.
SO THIS MEANS THEY ARE
STRUGGLING WITH RESPONSE TYPES.
IT MEANS THAT CLEARANCE RATES
FOR THINGS LIKE MURDER HAVE
REACHED HISTORIC LOWS.
AND WITH THESE BEING MORE
STRUCTURAL ISSUES, THERE ARE
NOT EASY SOLUTIONS.
AGENCIES ARE TRYING TO THROW
MONEY AT RECRUITS TO GET MORE
OFFICERS ON BOARD, AND THAT’S NOT NECESSARILY TURNING THINGS